MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF ANTHROPOGENIC RISK ESTIMATION FOR COMPLEX SYSTEMS ON THE BASIS OF THE ERLANG DISTRIBUTION

Ostreykovskiy Vladislav Alekseevich, doctor of technical sciences, professor, sub-department of computer science, Surgut State University (628412, 1 Lenin street, Surgut, Russia), ova@ivt.surgu.ru
Pavlov Aleksey Sergeevich, postgraduate student, Obninsk Institute for Nuclear Power Engineering –branch of National Research Nuclear University «MEPhI» (Moscow Engineering Physics Institute) (249040, 1 Studgorodok, Obninsk, Russia)

519.87

The article deals with method of measuring anthropogenic ricks. New analytical relations for function and density of distribution of risk are received: with independent and dependent random variable of probability of initial events and damages in relation to various the Erlfng distribution, heper-Erlang distribution laws.

risk, probability, damage, mathematical model, distribution function, density of distribution, distribution law.